EIA Predicts Lower Natural Gas Bills but Higher Heating Oil Costs

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its 2026-27 winter fuels outlook on Tuesday. Natural-gas heating costs are forecast to fall 9% to an average $640 for November through March, and propane costs 3% to $1,246. Electricity heating costs are seen rising 4% to $1,196. Heating oil costs are projected to rise about 21% to $2,115, with prices up 30%. EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said, "Relatively high natural gas inventories entering the winter season provide a cushion for heating demand, while households that rely on heating oil face higher prices because distillate markets remain tight." Natural gas inventories are expected to enter winter 2% above the five-year average. East Coast distillate stockpiles were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September and are forecast to remain 20-30% below average through winter. About half of U.S. households use natural gas or propane; about 3% use heating oil, mostly in the Northeast. National winter temperatures are expected to match last winter and the 10-year average, with warmer weather in the Northeast and colder in the West.