Midterms Appear Grim For GOP — But Michele Tafoya Within Striking Distance In Minnesota

By Daily Caller News Foundation (/journals/dcnf)

Republican Minnesota Senate nominee and former NBC Sports reporter Michele Tafoya is polling well in her Senate race in the blue state of Minnesota, while many Republican candidates struggle in traditionally red states.

While Republican candidates in red states struggle to fend off their Democratic opponents, Tafoya’s opponent, Democratic Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, leads by an average of 1.6 points in a state that has not had a Republican senator since 2009, when former Republican Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman left office. The Minnesota Republican centered her campaign around her state’s fraud scandals throughout Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s administration, of which Flanagan is a part.

Tafoya’s campaign told the Daily Caller News Foundation that she is performing well compared to other Republican candidates because of her message to hold “fraudsters accountable,” which they argued has resonated with Minnesota voters.

“Michele’s common sense message of ending fraud and holding fraudsters accountable is resonating with Minnesotans,” the Tafoya campaign told the DCNF. “During Peggy Flanagan’s eight years as lieutenant governor, billions of our tax dollars were stolen, violent gang activity increased, and test scores declined. Peggy Flanagan has already shown Minnesotans she is incapable of leadership. Next month, Minnesota voters will send her a pink slip.”

Flanagan’s campaign did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment on whether they are concerned that the fraud scandal could cost Flanagan the election.

RealClearPolling rated the race a “Toss Up” in September after multiple polls showed either a tie or Tafoya within the margin of error.

Cook Political Report rated the Minnesota Senate race as “likely Democrat.” The forecaster remained skeptical that Tafoya could flip the Senate seat due to the economy and the raids conducted by Immigration and Custom Enforcement (ICE).

“We’re skeptical of some public polling that has shown the race close, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has only just now started spending after a brutal Democratic primary. Former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya has an interesting profile, and national GOP sources maintain that voters’ anger over the state’s widespread fraud scandal will stick to Flanagan. But given the economy and the state’s ICE raids, this is a difficult climate to try to make a major play in a state Kamala Harris won,” Cook Political Report wrote.

Riots and protests broke out in Minnesota over Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) raids. Tensions escalated when two protesters, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, were killed by immigration agents.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris won Minnesota 51.1% to 46.9%. over President Donald Trump during the 2024 presidential election.

Fraudsters, most of whom were of Somali descent, allegedly stole hundreds of millions of Minnesotans’ taxpayer dollars from state programs since 2018, such as Feeding Our Future, which provided meals for low-income children during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Department of Justice (DOJ) charged 80 suspects with stealing around $250 million from Feeding Our Future.

Somali fraudsters allegedly stole over $90 million from Medicaid and child care programs throughout the state, including $46.6 million in autism fraud (EIDBI), $22 million in individualized home supports, and $15.7 million in housing stabilization services, according to the DOJ.

The top priority listed on Tafoya’s campaign website is her plan to address fraud. She called for deporting any immigrant convicted of fraud in the U.S., imposing tough mandatory sentencing to ensure fraudsters serve their sentences in federal prison and strip federal funding from states that refuse to implement anti-fraud controls or follow basic audit practices, according to the website.

Flanagan’s campaign website does not mention fraud, but calls for ending corruption, passing Medicare for All and ending Trump’s mass deportation policy.

Affordability remained the top issue for voters throughout the 2026 midterm cycle. Minnesotans felt the pinch of the theft of their taxpayers while also paying among the highest taxes in the U.S. The state ranks 44th overall in the Tax Foundation’s state tax competitiveness index.

Walz dropped his 2026 gubernatorial reelection bid in January after his administration received backlash over the fraud scandal. Senior Minnesota state officials allegedly hired outside investigators to silence whistleblowers in an attempt to cover up widespread state social services fraud.

A survey from August found that 39% of Minnesotans “strongly” disapproved of Walz’s job performance as governor, while 17% strongly approved, according to KSTP Eyewitness News, an ABC News affiliate. A poll by the Star Tribune/KARE 11/ Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota found Walz had a 39% approval rating in the state in June, while 53% disapproved.

Tafoya won four Sports Emmy Awards and covered five Super Bowls and 327 NFL games. She made her national debut at the U.S. Open Tennis Championships, and was a sideline reporter for NBC Sports’ highly-rated “Sunday Night Football” broadcasts.

Tafoya raised $5.3 million between Jan. 1, 2025, and July 22, according to the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) records. Since Republican PACs and committees do not typically spend large sums on candidates in blue states, her campaign received $230,000 from those groups.

Flanagan raised over $6.5 million in that same time frame, FEC filings show.

Tafoya and Flanagan are set to debate on Oct. 16.

Tafoya is not the only Republican candidate to perform well in a traditionally blue state this cycle. Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan is neck-and-neck with Democratic Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek in the state’s governor’s race, despite Oregon being a blue-leaning state, according to RealClear Polling

Republican candidates in deep red states and districts are struggling to fend off their Democratic challengers, causing Republican political action committees (PACs) to spend unprecedented amounts of money in states like Texas, Kansas and Iowa, and cut spending in battleground states like North Carolina since former Democratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper held a solid lead against Republican North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley.

Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton trailed Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico by 2.8 points, according to RealClearPolling. In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall was neck-and-neck with Democratic Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton after reports revealed he sued 700 of his patients for outstanding medical bills during his time as an OB-GYN, The New York Times reported.

Texas has not had a Democratic senator since 1993, while Kansas last had a Democrat senator in 1939. Republican candidates could lose to Democrats in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.

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All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.