Record US Farm Debt May Exceed $605 Billion

U.S. farm debt is projected at a record about $605 billion in 2026, more than double the inflation-adjusted level near $300 billion in 2000. USDA has told Reuters its estimates may understate what farmers owe as more use supplier, cooperative, equipment-maker, and fintech credit that is hard to track. A 2024 USDA and Kansas State study of 4.4 million equipment liens across 14 states found nontraditional equipment debt could run up to four times official figures. USDA logged about $45 billion in the individuals-and-other-lenders category in 2025; Jenny Ifft puts that category potentially two to three times higher. An agricultural economics firm cited by Reuters said roughly half of commercial farms used vendor or nontraditional credit last season. Reuters spoke with more than 52 row-crop farmers in seven states; most held seven to 10 credit lines, and one Iowa family reported 42. Land O’Lakes raised financing commitments from about $100 million last fall to more than $1 billion for the 2027 crop year. Survey response rates fell from about 68% in 2009 to 33% in 2025. USDA projects the debt-to-asset ratio at 13.54% this year and is studying gaps and wider-economy effects, with early findings expected within two years. Jeffrey Hopkins said new lenders are popping up and officials need ways to access that data. Wesley Davis said the risk could reach financial distress across the broader agribusiness ecosystem. Coverage is thin on the left, absent in center ratings, and fuller on the right, which also notes a September tariff deal that excluded soybeans, Trump’s Monday red-dyed diesel order, and Idaho farmers citing solar leases worth four to five times wheat income per acre.