Families Who Heat With Oil Face The Steepest Winter Bill Increase Of Any Fuel As Federal Aid Stays Flat

Families who heat with oil face the steepest winter bill increase of any fuel, while federal heating aid stays flat.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected Tuesday that spending by households that heat mainly with oil will rise 21 percent this winter, the largest increase of any heating fuel, as low stocks of diesel and heating oil keep prices high, according to its Winter Fuels Outlook.

The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) — which represents state heating aid administrators — expects the hit to be even larger. The average household using heating oil could spend about $2,625 this winter, up roughly $875 from about $1,750 last winter, NEADA Executive Director Mark Wolfe told the Daily Caller News Foundation. That is higher than the nearly $2,300 NEADA had projected in September.

“EIA may turn out to be right, but we are less optimistic that heating-oil prices will fall as quickly as they are projecting,” Wolfe said. “Distillate inventories remain low, the war continues to put pressure on global oil and diesel markets, and there is considerable uncertainty about winter temperatures.”

The largest concentrations of oil-heated homes outside New England are in New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, according to Wolfe.

“Heating oil is often thought of as primarily a New England issue, but there are still a very large number of oil-heated homes in the Mid-Atlantic states,” he said.

Heating oil averaged $4.90 a gallon across New York in June, up from $3.65 a year earlier, according to the state energy authority’s price survey. About 4 percent of U.S. households use heating oil, and roughly three-quarters of it is burned in the Northeast, Wolfe told the DCNF in September. Heating oil has been hit by the same limited refining capacity driving up diesel, NHPR reported.

Federal heating aid has not kept pace. Funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) was about $4.1 billion in fiscal 2026, and states are operating at roughly last year’s level under current funding, Wolfe said. If overall winter heating costs rise about 8 percent and states keep average benefits the same, the program could help the equivalent of roughly 450,000 to 500,000 fewer households nationwide, he estimated. He said states will make different choices.

“An additional $875 heating bill can easily exceed an entire LIHEAP benefit in some states,” Wolfe said. “That means even families who receive assistance can still be left with a very substantial bill.”