Truckers Don’t Stick Around For Long With Employers. Here’s Why.

The trucking industry has warned for years that America is running out of drivers, but federal research and industry turnover data suggest the problem may have less to do with finding truckers than keeping them behind the wheel.

Large long-haul truckload carriers have historically cycled through nearly their entire driver workforce each year, with researchers pointing to pay, long hours, time away from home and working conditions as factors behind the churn. Independent owner-operators complicate the picture further because some drivers leave carriers to work for themselves rather than leave trucking altogether, meaning carrier turnover does not necessarily equal workers exiting the industry.

“No, the trucking industry is not currently experiencing the widespread driver shortage like it did during the pandemic,” American Trucking Associations (ATA) Chief Economist Bob Costello told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “The market has changed considerably.”

The ATA estimated in a 2021 report that the industry was short 80,000 drivers that year and projected the figure would reach 123,000 in 2026 and 161,000 by 2030. The trade group estimated trucking would need nearly 1 million new drivers between 2021 and 2030 because of retirements, industry growth and drivers leaving the business.

Federal labor research, however, previously challenged the idea that trucking suffered from a persistent, industry-wide shortage.

A 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics analysis found the overall truck-driver labor market generally functioned similarly to other blue-collar labor markets and that driver supply responded to changes in earnings. Researchers concluded that a deeper examination did not show evidence of a long-term shortage, while identifying severe turnover concentrated among long-distance truckload carriers.

The same BLS study, using ATA carrier data, found annual turnover averaged 94% at large long-distance truckload carriers between 1995 and 2017. Small truckload carriers averaged 79.2%, compared with just 11.7% among less-than-truckload carriers.

The figures do not capture every way drivers participate in the industry. About 7% of heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers were self-employed in 2025, according to the latest BLS data, while 40% worked in the truck transportation industry.

Some long-haul drivers become owner-operators, buying or leasing their own trucks and going into business for themselves, according to BLS. A driver leaving a large carrier could therefore remain behind the wheel rather than leave trucking entirely.