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Sahm rule.

method of determining when the economy has entered a recession

‘It Triggered’: Economist Who Created Recession Indicator Sounds Alarm After Dismal Jobs Report

Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, who established the “Sahm Rule,” which has accurately predicted past recessions, warned the economy is on a concerning trajectory following a poor jobs report on Friday…

Reporting · 1 source · Jul 1, 2026Read it

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About Sahm rule

In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States' Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It is named after economist Claudia Sahm, formerly of the Federal Reserve and Council of Economic Advisors.

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