Bolsonaro Leads Brazil Vote, Climate Future Uncertain

Brazil’s Oct. 25 presidential runoff pits incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against conservative Flávio Bolsonaro, who narrowly led the first round. The contest raises major questions about the Amazon and Brazil’s climate agenda: Lula’s government has cut Amazon deforestation nearly in half and promoted Brazil as a destination for climate finance, while Bolsonaro’s father’s presidency saw deforestation rise sharply. Bolsonaro says he would strengthen the regulated carbon market and expand the bioeconomy, but investors and environmental advocates question whether he would sustain Lula’s green-economy policies, citing his past climate remarks and limited focus on emissions cuts. The first-round results also showed that Lula’s forest-protection record brought little apparent electoral benefit, while few Indigenous and pro-environment candidates won seats.