China copper output growth expected at decades-low 3%

China's refined copper output is expected to grow 3% to 3.4% this year, according to Wood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng Futures, compared with 10.4% growth in 2025. A Reuters review of official records finds this the lowest growth rate since at least 2000. January-August growth was 4%, with analysts expecting a sharper fourth-quarter slowdown. Smelters face shortages of copper concentrate and scrap copper, the latter reduced by a tax crackdown. "The concern now is that scrap is tightening at the same time as concentrate, reducing smelters' ability to substitute between raw materials," said Raghav Jain, head of copper pricing at Argus. Sulphuric acid prices fell 11% in September per Oilchem, eroding smelter profitability. Zhuochuang analysts said seven Chinese smelters plan 30-60 days of maintenance in October and November, cutting refined copper supply by about 80,000 metric tons. Temporary disruptions at BHP's Escondida, MMG's Las Bambas and Codelco's El Teniente mines have compounded the concentrate shortage. Brian Peng of CRU projected on September 23 that copper would average $14,500 a ton in the fourth quarter, against a 2026 trading range so far of $11,700 to $14,875 a ton. Analysts say slower Chinese output growth will likely support prices.