Thailand Inflation Rises 2.82%, Below Forecast, Within Target

Thailand’s headline inflation rose to 2.82% year over year in September from 2.53% in August, below economists’ forecasts but the highest reading since April and near the top of the central bank’s 1%–3% target range. Higher fuel and food costs drove the increase, while weather-related supply disruptions also lifted prices of some fresh foods. Officials expect inflation to accelerate further in the fourth quarter, though they say recent flooding should have only a modest impact. The Commerce Ministry raised and narrowed its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.8%–2.2% from 1.5%–2.5%. Core inflation edged up to 1.50%, from 1.44% in August.